Three days ago, India were on the verge of a series victory. They led 2-0, had bowled New Zealand out for 185 and 134, and looked in complete control. Then Matt Henry produced one of the great ODI spells, and India collapsed to 89 all out at Bay Oval. The series is now 2-1, and the final match at the same venue will decide everything. Source: ESPN.co.uk

Can India win a bilateral away ODI series for the first time under Gautam Gambhir? Can New Zealand maintain their remarkable home record and level the series? Will the rain intervene and hand India the trophy? These are the questions that will be answered on Sunday. Source: Yahoo Sports

New Zealand posted 333/10, powered by Will Young’s career-best 125 and Tim Seifert’s maiden ODI fifty. India’s bowlers were guilty of dropped catches and lacked discipline, with Kuldeep Yadav conceding 73 runs without a wicket. Source: New Indian Express

Then came the collapse. Matt Henry produced a triple-wicket maiden in the first over, dismissing Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, and Shreyas Iyer for ducks. India never recovered, bowled out for 89 in 26.4 overs. It was their second-biggest defeat in ODI history by run margin. Source: Stuff.co.nz

Shreyas Iyer later admitted the team thought they would be “cruising” during the chase, but credited Henry for exploiting the conditions perfectly. The batting line-up’s vulnerability against the moving ball was brutally exposed. Source: News18

New Zealand have been forced into major changes. Matt Henry, the hero of the fourth ODI with 6/27, has left the white-ball camp to join the Test squad. Kyle Jamieson has also departed for Test preparations. This is a massive blow to their bowling attack. Source: ESPN.co.uk / MyKhel

Jacob Duffy returns to lead the pace attack after taking six wickets in the first two ODIs. Blair Tickner is available for selection after recovering from concussion. Uncapped seamer Brett Randell and all-rounder Josh Clarkson have been called into the squad. Source: RNZ / MyKhel

India have their own availability issues. Shubman Gill, KL Rahul, and Anshul Kamboj are unavailable for Test preparations. Gurnoor Brar, the top wicket-taker of the series, has also joined the Test squad and will miss the decider. Source: News18 / Cricbuzz

Mohammed Siraj is almost certain to return, having warmed the bench for the first four matches. Yash Thakur is another option. Kuldeep Yadav’s place is under scrutiny after his expensive outing in the fourth ODI. Source: News18

Bay Oval is generally a good batting surface, offering consistent bounce and carry. The average first-innings score here is 272.6. However, the surface used for the fourth ODI offered significant swing and seam movement, and a similar pitch is expected for the decider. The new ball will swing, and the wobble seam will be a potent weapon. Source: Crex

As the game progresses, batting will become easier. Spinners are not expected to get much assistance. The toss has not historically been decisive at this venue, with teams batting first and second winning seven ODIs each. Source: Crex

The weather is a major concern. There is a 40% chance of rain, with passing showers expected. Cloud cover will be around 81%, and temperatures will hover around 21°C. Wind speeds will be around 9 km/h from the northeast. Source: Crex / Outlook India

The rain is expected to be brief, around 30-40 minutes, but it could still interrupt play. If a no-result is forced, India will win the series 2-1. The overcast conditions will assist the seamers throughout the match. Source: India.com

India’s batting recovery strategy: The top order must survive the new ball. Rohit and Gaikwad need to see off the early swing and seam movement. Kohli’s role as the anchor is critical. The middle order must absorb pressure and not panic if early wickets fall. Source: CricTracker

New Zealand’s opening bowling plan: With Henry and Jamieson gone, Duffy and Fisher must exploit the early moisture. The wobble seam will be a key weapon. Santner’s spin will be more useful if the pitch dries out, but the seamers hold the key. Source: Crex

Powerplay’s importance: On a seaming pitch, the first 10 overs will decide the game. Both teams will look to take early wickets and put the opposition under pressure.

Death overs: If the rain stays away, the final 10 overs could be decisive. India’s finishers like Naman Dhir and Axar Patel will need to provide the late impetus.

The toss has not been decisive at Bay Oval historically, with teams batting first and second winning seven ODIs each. However, with overcast conditions and a 40% chance of rain, the team winning the toss is likely to bowl first. The reasoning is simple: exploit the early swing and seam movement, then chase a target with the DLS method potentially in play. Source: Crex